Blogger recently went down for about 20 hours or so during which no posts could be published. This was without doubt a great inconvenience. Unfortunately this was not the end of it. When blogger finally came back online, I discovered that my last published post had disappeared. I waited over the weekend hoping that Google will be able to recover it but alas it was not to be. I am forced to conclude that this post is irretrievably lost in the wilds of cyberspace. I like to think of this vanished post as my lost little child crying for help all alone in the cyber wilderness but no one is able to hear it. As can be gauged from the links below, this was a widespread problem that affected a large number of blogs, their publishers and readers. I guess these are the hazards of technology.
This incident also neatly highlights our dependence on technology and the problems that this dependence can represent. There is no mystery why we have not only become so dependent on technology as a society but this dependence is rapidly increasing. Technology liberates us from drudgery. It makes possible new ways of working, playing and socializing. It connects us to friends and loved ones living in far off places. These are all positive outcomes in that they liberate energies that would have been otherwise occupied.
However, therein also lies the danger. The very forces that enable new ways of working, playing and socializing also ensure that the repercussions of any failure are hugely magnified. Remember the millennium bug scare of 1999/2000? Many people now dismiss it as a boondoggle but the possible repercussions could have been devastating. The problem at that time was that no one could predict how computer driven systems would behave when the year date changed from 99 to 00. It was the possible interactions of systems that were unpredictable. There was the distinct possibility of electricity failures. That would have ensured the total failure of almost every other system in place since electricity is a basic driver of our society. The provision of essential services such as health and law enforcement also could have been severely impacted. Again this would have had a strong, possibly devastating impact on society. All these possibilities came into being because over time we were switching over to computer based systems from the older manual systems in the name of efficiency and the quest to provide superior, better service.
Since then, we have become ever more dependent on technology. The 1999/2000 period seems positively quaint from today's perspective. Cell phones were not widespread. Smartphones were not even a gleam in anybody's eye. The Internet had barely got off the ground as far as consumers and most businesses were concerned. Systems were linked internally but there were relatively few external linkages. Supply lines of organizations were not geared around internet enabled computer based systems. All of these things have come to pass. Today if the net is down, we simply cannot work and play. For example, if Facebook goes down for even a short time, literally millions of people are unable to connect and thousands of organizations are unable to transact their business. The repercussions flow much more rapidly and affect a far greater number of people and organizations.
An example: airlines across the world are now linked together in strategic alliances. They are able to coordinate their schedules thanks to computer based systems. Similarly individuals are able to plan out their travels thanks to the internet which can display the schedules and linkages of dozens of airlines from any point to any other point. Great stuff right? Tight linkages brought about through the magic of computers. And then a volcano with an unpronounceable name erupts in Iceland. European airspace shuts down and suddenly airlines around the world find their carefully constructed and coordinated schedules torn to pieces. Passengers find themselves stuck at airports in foreign countries often with money running out.
Another example: The solar storm of 1859 is the most powerful such event in recorded history. Auroras, which are usually confined to the polar regions were seen around the world right into the tropics. The high technology of the day, the telegraph system was knocked out of commission. Now imagine what such an event would do today. Satellites would be knocked out thereby cutting off communication systems. The electro-magnetic radiation has the potential to knock out computer systems around the world. Since we now depend on these technologies for the smooth functioning of society, there will be massive disruptions throughout the larger system including severe disruptions of food and essential supplies. Can such a massive solar event happen today? Definitely. Some scientists believe that the current solar cycle which culminates in 2013 could end in an event of similar magnitude.
Older systems were robust because of their primitive nature. Current systems are much more sophisticated and complicated. They are also much more efficient. Unfortunately they are also much more sensitive to disruptions. Older systems were isolated. As a result if one system got knocked out, others would not be affected. The telegraph system was disrupted in the solar flare of 1859. That did not affect say the health system. Today's systems are interconnected. A disruption in one is quickly transmitted to others. Modern systems may be more efficient than previous ones, they are also far less robust. Blogger's disruption was an inconvenience. The next disruption may well be fatal.
No comments:
Post a Comment