Two trends started at roughly similar times and fed on each other: the dawn of industrialization and the beginning of formalized pursuit of scientific knowledge. Not only these two trends fed on each other, they were also propelled by an ever faster internal dynamic which in turn fed into the interactions of both. This means that both the process of industrialization and the increase in scientific knowledge are on an exponential curve. Both started slowly and then rapidly increased. Thus we see that the time taken for a scientific discovery to make its way into the classroom is becoming shorter and shorter. Similarly the time taken for a product or process or service to move from the lab into the hands of consumers is also becoming shorter and shorter. This is a blistering pace which is rapidly kicking up in gear as the effects of exponential growth kick in.
Where will this take us? At this point it is hard to say. The past is no longer a guide to the future and indeed has not been so for over 50 years. Each new discovery and technology has had enormous repercussions that have in some fashion radically broken from the past. The light bulb, for example, has enabled us to carry forward daytime activities well into the night. Not only that, it has encouraged new forms of activities and businesses that simply were not possible before. Night clubs are an example. No one will dance late into the night in candle light on a regular basis. High rise buildings are dark, dingy places without the lighting made possible by the light bulb. Without it, the number of high rise building that exist would be much lower. This has obvious repercussions for businesses and individuals.
The light bulb in turn depends on the reliable generation of electricity which requires an understanding and theory of elctro-magnetism. Thus a scientific discovery holds the key to an invention that other inventions and forms in turn depend on. A good example is computers. These machines have revolutionized business and personal interactions. Email for example is an integral part of the lives of large numbers of people. Email cannot exist without computers.
The TV is another example. Coupled with the light bulb, it made possible a new form of entertainment and information dissemination. Before the TV, people made their own entertainment which was essentially local. Now a vast industry exists for the sole purpose of entertainment. A new form of story telling has been invented that is immediate and compelling. Previously, information was also harder to disseminate. Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth would not be possible without the kind of mass dissemination that TV offers.
Airplanes have woven a web around the world that has made travel cheap and convenient. Not only that, it has made possible new types of businesses specially in perishable products. There is a thriving export market of flowers from African countries into Europe and the US. This is a type of business that is impossible without airplanes; flowers are simply too perishable.
As these few examples show, over the last 50 years or so, new discoveries and inventions have ever rapidly made the journey from discovery to the class room to the market. Each has caused a disruption in the fabric of our lives. Their collective impact has been such that our current activities and the things that we take for granted would have seemed incomprehensible and magical to our ancestors living just a 100 years ago.
What will our lives be like 50 years from now? What kinds of activities will we be engaged in? What will be our concerns? These and similar questions are pondered upon by futurologists. The scenarios they conjure are fascinating and often illuminating. Their analysis however has a fundamental problem. We tend to project the present into the future. We identify existing trends and project them forward. No matter how radically different the analysis may seem, it is at its heart a projection of current trends into the future. However, if the recent past should teach us anything it is this: the future is going to be completely and unexpectedly different. New discoveries can easily and very quickly stop current trends in their tracks and kick-start new ones. It is impossible to predict what these new discoveries will be like. What we can be sure of is that there will be big disruptions in our lives and possibilities will exist that we cannot even imagine today.
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