Coping With Disaster

A disaster like an earthquake or a tsunami rips apart the bonds of civilization temporarily. The networks that normally operate and assist us in our daily lives stop working and people are left to their own devices. Life stops operating normally. What happens then? Do people turn on each other in a desperate bid for survival at any cost? What actually happens in the immediate aftermath of disaster is revealing. In case after case, the people in the affected area have turned to each other for help. Perfect strangers have done their best to aid their fellow humans. In the most trying of circumstances, networks are formed as people help not only themselves but also perfect strangers. In this fashion, humans show an innate empathy that is lacking in all other creatures. Even if the larger society fails to respond with aid in a timely fashion, the affected people rarely turn on each other unless instigated to do so in some fashion. This is a key point. We have an ability to empathize with others including perfect strangers. This empathy needs to be over ridden in some fashion before there can be descent into chaos.

How the broader society responds to a disaster depends on how egalitarian it is. Highly unequal societies will respond slowly no matter how rich they may be. Specifically they will respond in a piece meal fashion. The richer segments of society will be rescued fast while the less well off will be left largely to their own devices for a period of time. We saw this in action when Hurricane Katrina struck. The poor people who were stranded were left to their own devices while the state secured areas of concern to the well off. This occurred in the richest society in the world. Another problem in unequal societies is that there will always be people trying to take advantage of distress. Such people will try their best to over ride the empathy I talked of above since their interests are best served in chaotic conditions. More equal societies will respond in a speedy fashion to all the citizens in distress regardless of their economic status. People who try to take advantage of distress (and there are always some in any society) tend to get marginalized and rendered essentially harmless fairly quickly.

We are not brutes who are only kept in check by the controls imposed by civilization. This has always been the excuse of despots and would be despots down the ages. If people can be convinced that they are innately brutal, then strong controls can be imposed in the name of order. But events have shown again and again that when the need arises, humans reach out to help each other irrespective of relations. In this respect, an innate humanity wins out.

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Society's Priorities - II

In one sense, the priorities of a society are a sum of our priorities as individuals living in that society. What we consider to be important as individuals gets aggregated and eventually translates into what we value as a society. In a capitalist society, the primary mode of this expression is via the marketplace - whether the marketplace is that of goods or of ideas.

The picture however is not as simple as this. Our individual priorities do not arise in a vacuum. They have always been influenced by our families and peers. The rise of mass media and new forms of communication have enabled external interests to also influence our individual priorities. Psychological tactics (of which marketing is an important part) are major tools that are used to influence us as individuals. In many cases, this is done for purely commercial purposes. Sometimes however, this is done to influence society in a particular direction. Even when done for purely commercial purposes, the result is often that society turns in a direction that perhaps is not conducive to its future.

Why is it that top actors are paid so highly while top teachers are paid a pittance? Is the work of actors really that much more important? Why are celebrities followed avidly while firefighters are ignored? Are the former really so vital to the proper functioning of our society? Why are bankers paid so much more than their peers in other industrial sectors to the extent that people with PhDs in Physics and Maths are working in the financial sector? Are bankers really that much more intelligent, harder working and more productive? Why do we have the phenomenon of celebrity CEOs? Why do we elevate and celebrate people who are essentially bureaucrats? Why are technicians valued more than artists or philosophers?

All of these show what we truly value as a society. As individuals, we will gravitate towards areas that our society values more highly. So we have the phenomenon of young people trying to become actors while teaching positions (or firefighting or police) lie vacant. We also see bankers awarding themselves huge bonuses shortly after causing a major economic collapse while police, firefighting and public health services are scaled back or shut down for a lack of money. Whatever rhetoric we may employ, there are areas of our society that we simply do not consider to be important even though objectively viewed they are necessary for the future health of our society.

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Society's Priorities

A free market economy is a grand social experiment in societal priorities. The products and services we purchase, the types of jobs that are rewarded and the types that are not rewarded, the level of trust in personal and business interactions are all indications of the priorities that we have as a society. Our actions show what we value and what we don't. Rhetoric is cheap. It is easy to say anything specially if one feels that the words spoken will not come back to haunt them. Actions are what count.

Take education. Something that is vital for society's future prosperity. Without an educated workforce, many of the techniques and processes that are routinely discussed in the business community would simply not be possible. Most R&D in the public and private sector depends on the continuous infusion of young researchers who bring in a fresh perspective on old problems. So given that education is so important, teaching should be among the most highly paid of professions. The fact that it isn't specially at the primary and secondary levels says that despite our rhetoric, as a society, education is actually not considered very important.

Finance on the other hand is seemingly vital to an economy's health and success. The work that financial managers do is far more important to society than all other sectors of the economy despite the fact that finance is in essence a service industry which needs other sectors in order to exist. That is why the financial sector routinely hands out multi-million dollar packages thereby attracting the best talent and starving other sectors of the same.

Given our spending patterns, it seems that as a society, we care more about consuming in the present than preserving and adding for the future. As a group, our priorities are geared more towards enjoyment of the present despite the warnings that we have been given in the shape of various economic crises that have arisen from time to time.

End of Times

People have long had a strong fascination with the end of times meme. The imminent destruction of the world, typically in a fiery manner, has been a staple of predictions across cultures. While most people have focused on the mechanics of the end of times, the more interesting question is why is there such fascination with such gloomy predictions? Instead of asking how the world will end, it is perhaps more pertinent to explore why people find the end of the world so fascinating.

Since the start of agriculture, humans have had a strong interest in trying to predict the future. There are excellent reasons for doing so. If you are a farmer planning to plant next year's crop, then you want to know whether the rainfalls will come on time or whether the river will flood as it should. You want some predictability in an inherently unpredictable world in order to be able to plan ahead with some degree of confidence. These and other similar reasons were probably the origin of most oracles and seers. Later on as civilization developed and people started congregating in towns and then cities, the importance of future predictions increased. Rulers would want to know what kind of surplus would be generated for use. What the result of battles with the enemy will be like. Will the people be happy or at the very least content. The ruled would want to be able to plan out their lives with some degree of precision. Over time, these arts started becoming more formalized and today we have astrologers who claim to be able to predict personal and national futures.

Along the way, another interesting development took place in the art of predictions. Regular claims of the end times started appearing with increasing frequency. These claims typically increase in frequency during times of national stress. Thus changes in dynasties were usually accompanied by such predictions. They also tend to increase in frequency during significant calendar years. When a millennium change occurs, such predictions surface with greater rapidity. Sometimes they occur due to religious reasons. For example, the early Christians were convinced of the imminent arrival of Jesus in their lifetimes. When the second millennium started, again they were convinced that Jesus was about to come. In recent times, there have been two main drivers of the end time meme. One was the change of the millennium in both the Christian and the Islamic calendars. The other was the Mayan Long Count calendar. The latter is the most accurate calendar devised by humans until the modern era. Its accuracy rivals that of the modern calendar that we use today. This calendar can be used to project dates both backwards and forwards literally thousands of years without any loss of accuracy. Yet the Maya ended their calendar at a date that corresponds to the winter solstice, 2012. Nobody knows why. This mystery has set the stage for a large degree of speculation regarding the significance of this end date.

These two strands taken together have created a buzz that has grown over time as the calendar moves forward into 2012. A variety of predictions and speculation float around the internet. Some predict the coming Age of Aquarius which will bring peace and prosperity while others predict death and destruction on a massive scale from which only a few will be saved. On the face of it, this obsession with the end times is strange. The standard of living that a large number of people enjoy would have been unimaginable to even the richest person just a few generations ago. Over time, more and more people have attained this standard. A large number enjoy amenities that their parents could only dream about. The pace of technological advance has  meant that people can now live and work anywhere in the world and not be cut off from their family members left behind. There has been an increase in the variety and quality of food available. The average age of individuals has steadily increased over the last 100 years and shows no sign of slowing down. The average intelligence of the world's population has been increasing over time as a result of better nutrition and greater security.

With all of these positives, why are people attracted towards end world scenarios? Could it be related to the rapid pace of change in society that has occurred in recent times? We are constantly and increasingly rapidly being bombarded with new technologies and ideas that constantly change the way we behave and think. The old certainties of yesterday are gone. They have not been replaced with new ones. In their place, we are left groping in the dark trying to make sense of the new world around us. The older we get, the faster the changes arrive and the more problem we have in adjusting to new realities. Perhaps the attraction of the end time predictions is that they have an aura of certainty around them.

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Managing Religion

Religion is a powerful organizing force in the world despite massive efforts to belittle its importance and utility. This has been a problem for most governments since religious passions are difficult to predict and control. Authorities interfere with religion at their own peril. We have many examples in history where religion inspired wars and revolutions. The events of 1857 in India, the Boxer Rebellion in China in 1900, the Mormon migration of 1847 and the many pogroms in Europe throughout the Middle Ages were inspired to a lesser or greater extent by religious passions. As a result, throughout history, authorities in charge have either tried to clamp down on religion usually unsuccessfully or they have tried to co-opt it and make it subservient to the state.

Demagogues and people seeking an issue they can champion find it very easy to raise the cry "[xyz religion] is in danger!" This almost invariably causes large numbers of people to come out in support of their religion. Once a large enough group assembles, mob behavior quickly takes over. The problem for demagogues and society in general is that once this happens, it is almost impossible to control events. Religious passions are easy to ignite but difficult to tamp down. In the heat of the moment, individuals will engage in actions that they would under normal circumstances never consider doing. What such people do not stop to consider this that the religion whose name they have come out to defend is actually being manipulated to serve nefarious interests. This is one aspect of managing religion.

Because of the relative ease with which religious passions can be inspired, rulers have always had a strong interest in making it subservient to the perceived needs of the state. A basic motivation is to prevent religiously inspired riots and insurrections and preserve law and order or at the very least control. A deeper motivation is that religion can be used to make people quiescent. No matter how repressive the regime or social order, religion can be used as a tool to make people quietly accept the existing order. For this purpose, the state often co-opts religious authorities essentially by making them part of the existing establishment so that they have a strong interest in maintaining the existing order. This is another aspect of managing religion.

Sometimes religion is used to stratify societies. Hinduism has used this to great effect. It has divided its adherents into castes and sub-castes. If you are born into a particular caste, you cannot aspire to things and activities reserved for other castes. Castes themselves have a strong hierarchy so that some are superior than others. The beauty of this system is that it is self perpetuating and virtually immune to pressure from within. How can someone challenge the divine order? Doing so means damnation of the soul. In this way, religion is used to perpetuate a class system. This is yet another aspect of managing religion.

In modern times and specially in advanced economies, traditional religion is belittled and mocked for its supposed superstition and backwardness. The irony is that the people who do so have in essence elevated science to the status of religion. This is still another aspect of managing religion.

The pawns in all of this are people's belief systems. Many politicians, religious leaders, dictators, demagogues or people seeking to make themselves famous use religion as a tool to advance their personal, narrow interests. Often the harm that they cause is enormous. All the blame for this harm is laid on the door of the religion concerned when in actual fact, the real blame lies elsewhere.

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The Lure of Power

Exactly what is the lure of power? Why do despots fiercely cling to power no matter what the consequences may be for their country? Is it because they believe themselves to be indispensable? Do they view themselves as father figures guiding their child like population to safety?

One possible reason can be money. Almost every single dictator has been massively corrupt looting millions if not billions from their countries over the course of their rule. Frequently this looting is accompanied by a deliberate breakdown of law and order and an undermining of any countervailing institutions. Building these is a pre-requisite of good governance but they would also act as a check on the looting that dictators love to indulge in.

However, while this is a major component, it cannot be the sole one. If that were the case, dictators would tend to flee when the population rises in revolt. Instead they cling on desperately and willingly push their countries into civil war like Gaddafi has done in Libya. In some cases, the despots may not be personally corrupt but they will still refuse to share power. Bahrain is currently following this route. So why try to hang on to power once the population is out on the streets and has made it clear that you are not wanted?

Incidentally power also seems to have major health benefits. The more absolute the power, the greater the apparent health benefits. Take a look at the despots sprinkled far too liberally around the world. Each one of them is a picture of robust health as long as they are power. However, most of them fall ill and die shortly after losing that power. Dictator after dictator has been the picture of robust health as long as they have control only to fall into illness and dying fairly quickly after being kicked out.

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Exploitation and Technology

Modern society has a very large element of exploitation in it. This occurs at different levels and is manifested in different ways. All of us play a role in it. We are at the same time exploiters and the exploited. Over time, the level and sophistication of the exploitation has increased at an ever rapid pace. This increase has largely been driven by technology. In this sense, technology is an enabler and at the same time an enslaver.

One of the primary requirements for exploitation is information. In order to exploit people and situations, we need access to the appropriate information. This does not mean that exploitation will not occur in the absence of information. It will. It will merely be done at a very crude level. Every transaction and interaction has a physical component and an informational component. It is the informational component that is vital for exploitation to take place.

While we are surrounded by an invisible web of information, for most of history, it was very difficult to actually capture and use it in any meaningful fashion. The cost and difficulty of doing so was simply too large. Technology has always been used to try and capture this information. The development of writing and the increasing sophistication of writing materials were amongst the first steps in this regard. However, the pace of technological change in the past was simply too low to allow for widespread gathering of the necessary information. The industrial revolution changed that. The technological changes it engendered in many different fields increasingly enabled larger and larger quanta of information to be efficiently and ever cheaply gathered. This enabled exploitation on a previously unimaginable scale. The forced labor of Stalinist Russia was only possible by the technological advances made possible with the Industrial Revolution.

Today, with several different technologies converging, the amount of data that is captured on a daily basis by a wide variety of organizations is simply astonishing. The limiting factor right now is processing this information into usable knowledge in a reasonable time and at a reasonable cost and there is a large amount of serious research that is looking into this aspect. The advances made therein have allowed people to be exploited with ever greater efficiency and ruthlessness. At the same time, we have mostly been convinced that we are not being exploited at all.

A prime example of this is modern globalization. At the start of this process, blue collar jobs got outsourced. Middle class fears were allayed by the claim that advanced economies can concentrate on more value added, knowledge intensive work while the affected workers were convinced that job losses were their own fault. Again, technology was a prime enabler for the process by lowering transportation and communication costs to a level where management of far flung factories became possible in almost real time. Also from this time on the blue collar jobs that remained had this particular sword hanging over their heads. But technological forces also enabled the exploitation of middle class jobs. The knowledge jobs that were supposed to be the domain of the advanced economies can just as easily (and more cheaply) done by developing economies because no one has a lock of acquiring knowledge. This enabled middle class workers to be exploited as well by playing on fears of losing jobs.

Another great enabler and exploiter has been the Internet. This has allowed for new kinds of goods and services which have become integral parts of our professional and private lives. People can express themselves in ways that were simply not possible before. The rise of bloggers is an excellent example of this. Before the Net, the publishing houses acted as gatekeepers. They decided who got published and who did not. Here printing technology had liberated by lowering the cost of a book but enabled a group (publishers) to exploit another one (authors). The Internet enabled a larger group of people to bypass the gatekeepers and get themselves published at a nominal cost. Blogging has become a powerful and empowering phenomenon. At the same time, bloggers have been arrested and otherwise harassed for writing about things that powerful interests do not want to be generally aired: the most prominent example of this being Wikileaks. Again technology broke one form of exploitation and acted as a liberating force. At the same time, it made possible a different form of exploitation.

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On Exploitation

The word exploitation brings to mind visceral images of sweatshop labor; people working under abysmal conditions for next to no pay making overpriced goods meant for richer markets. Alternatively, we think of women being forced into prostitution. Whatever image comes to mind, in our minds exploitation happens to poor people living in third world countries.

We could not be more wrong. Every single one of us is being exploited on a daily basis. This exploitation is occurring at different levels and with different degrees of sophistication. No one is immune. The exploitation is to such an extent that even the exploiters in one area are themselves being exploited in other areas. We have built our society based on mass exploitation and the beauty of this system is that the vast majority of people are largely unaware of what is going on.

Our exploitation takes on many different forms. Some of it is emotional. Most commercial messages use this form. When we are bombarded by messages showing images of beautiful people and perfect families working and playing in idyllic conditions, in effect we are being manipulated into feeling bad about ourselves and our situation. The idea is to motivate us to buy the product or service being advertised in the (usually vain) hope that by using it, we will somehow become like the people being shown. This emotional exploitation has been honed to a high degree of sophistication. We think that we are immune to the effects of advertising when the reality is that we are not. No matter how cynical we may be, our defenses will eventually be breached in some fashion by the sheer volume of repetition of the messages.

Some forms of exploitation are based on fear. Virtually the entire insurance industry uses this form specifically the fear of what will happen to our loved ones if we were to die suddenly. This form of exploitation is also heavily used by other companies. The threat of being sacked if we were to go against the wishes of the management or if we were to protest our working conditions is hung over our head like the sword of Damocles. This fear is used to tame us into submission. There is also the additional fear of poverty that will befall us if we were to rock the boat.

Sexual exploitation is ofcourse a staple of modern society. Virtually every ad is filled with beautiful women and handsome men in some state of undress. Similarly movies and to a great extent TV also have this form of exploitation. Keep in mind that the exploitation depicted is not just that of the models shown. We are being exploited into viewing women (and men) essentially as objects and not as humans. When a woman or a man wears tight clothing, are they not the victims of sexual exploitation? Nor is this exploitation restricted to adults only. Children are not exempt. Beauty contests for little children is a form of exploitation that is done by the willing connivance of parents who have essentially been brainwashed into thinking there is no harm in the activity.

No matter where we are or who we are, we are both manipulators and victims. We carry out some form of exploitation often without realizing it and we ourselves are exploited in some fashion again usually without our realizing it.

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Ambiguity - II

As I have stated before, we live in a world full of ambiguous situations. However, we seem to be hardwired to avoid ambiguity. This ofcourse made sense in our remote past. If I am a hunter-gatherer, then I better be sure that the shadow I see in the bush I am about to pass is not some lion or other dangerous beast that could attack and kill me. If I am an early farmer, I better be sure about when to plant so that I don't go hungry later on.

So when we encounter ambiguous situations in the modern world, we are unsure how to react. By definition, ambiguous situations are novel ones; If we had encountered a similar situation previously, we would have some idea how to react. The human body has two basic responses to a given situation: fight or flight. Both types require a fairly high level of certainty. Ambiguous situations do not lend themselves to the required level. As a result, our bodies are under almost constant stress. This ultimately leads to high levels of chronic stress related problems in the populace.

Unfortunately, the level of ambiguity in society is not going down. Rather the opposite is happening. Scientific and technical discoveries are on an exponential trajectory. These often lead to a high level of social changes occurring in society. Take the whole social media phenomenon at whose apex Facebook is currently sitting. This has introduced a whole new method of interaction. But the rules are not clear. For example, what is a poke? What happens if I "poke" somebody. Is it polite? Rude? Does it send some kind of message that I don't want to send? If I see somebody's information, am I being curious or am I stalking? Should I bombard my friends with constant status updates? All these are important questions with as yet no clear answers. There is no doubt that as a society we will evolve some standardized response to these types of question in this type of situation. But then we will encounter some new type of situation and again we will have the same problem.

Our situation is like being on a treadmill that keeps going faster and faster and so we have to run harder and harder in order to stay upright. This is ultimately exhausting and many people give up what seems to be a hopeless struggle. Is there then no solution? Are we doomed to keep struggling in the face of new, ambiguous situations that will crop up with monotonous and ever increasing regularity? Personally I am hopeful. I like to think that we will come up with some heuristics to help guide us through this ambiguous maze that modernity has constructed around us.

Ambiguity

We live in an ambiguous world. The old certainties have been stripped away leaving us uncertain of where we stand. This phenomenon has occurred no matter where we live as a proliferation of media outlets, the spread of the Internet coupled with the spread of mobile phones and globalization brought each of us in increasingly close contact with other cultures and peoples. The conflict that this engenders can be seen most closely in the children of immigrants. The people who originally immigrated have had a particular kind of upbringing that inculcated in them a particular set of values both moral and cultural. They expect their children to follow these same values heedless of the fact that the children have grown up in a different cultural context. The clash that almost invariably follows often results in the certainties of the parents being destroyed. Nor is this restricted to immigrants. The mere presence of immigrants with their strange customs and values (and often religion) ends up shaking those of the natives themselves. Just as the interaction of two generations of immigrants results in the old certainties of the parents being stripped away, the interaction of immigrants and natives does the same for the latter.

Changes in the social environment also result in ambiguity. As an example, earlier generations of men were generally speaking sure of their place in the world. They were the breadwinners for the family while their wives were the homemakers. Now that women have entered the workforce in large numbers, men are no longer sure of their place in the world specially if the wife ends up earning more money than the husband. The new conditions have resulted in an ambiguity leaving people unsure of how to behave. Nor is the workplace exempt from ambiguity. Again to take the above example, the induction of women in the workforce has rendered old modes of behavior obsolete without specifying new modes. Again an ambiguous situation has been created leaving people unsure of how to behave.

Perspectives on History - II

We all have a shared history. The problem is that we tend to remember it differently. History inspires a lot of passion because it strikes at the heart of how we perceive ourselves. We all like to see ourselves and our nation as having been a force for (perhaps ultimate) good. In this regard, colonialism inspires a lot of passion. The thing is that there are many factors which together affect both the happening and outcome of any historical event. To separate one strand from all rest is to view history in monochrome instead of technicolor.

Take colonialism as an example. I wrote in an earlier post (Perspectives on History - Part I) that the same historical event will be viewed and remembered differently by the participants. Their perspectives will be different along with the lessons regarding themselves that they draw. Colonialism shows this to an high degree. Was the impact of colonialism on the conquered peoples positive or negative? Arguments can be drawn for both sides. Consider India. It was ruled by the British for almost 150 years first through a proxy - the East India Company and then directly. Did India benefit? This question and questions like this for other parts of the world draw rather polarized responses. On the positive side, the British introduced modern physical infrastructure like railways and later roads and electricity. They built an excellent irrigation system that brought large areas of new land under cultivation. They imposed law and order on what had previously been lawless areas. They introduced a bureaucracy generally considered to be incorruptible. They left behind traditions of parliamentary democracy. Both India and Pakistan have benefited from exposure to English which has become a global language. On the other hand, they destroyed India's textile industry so that the British one could benefit. The physical infrastructure they did build was done so keeping in mind the Empire's needs. The needs of the people were not a paramount consideration. Indians were allowed into the higher levels of government very grudgingly and only after strong popular pressure. Even then the needs of the Empire took precedence. For example, the Government of India declared war on Japan and Germany without consulting any Indian politician. The bureaucracy they introduced was paternalistic and patronizing. This bureaucracy considered that it knew best what was good for the people under its control. So which view is correct? The answer is it depends. For a truer, more complete picture, all these different factors need to be kept in mind.

History is too rich a tapestry to be watered down. Doing so results in a far poorer understanding of where we come from. As a result we will not understand our present and will fail to understand the course of our future.

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The Paradox of Development

Human history has been a story of connections. Over the entire course of history, people have forged connections with others. Initially starting with immediate neighbors and then moving on further and further afield. Sometimes the connections made were peaceful, sometimes not. The unequal distribution of resources in the world led to the development of trade which in turn led to further and deeper connections being made. These ever closer connections are an important aspect of development. This process of forging connections was slow but over the very long term steady despite setbacks like collapse of empires (the Roman Empire being a prominent example) and the occasional appearance of devastating diseases like the Black Plague. Industrialization vastly accelerated this process. It is as though the accelerator has been jammed down hard.

Industrialization enabled two very important developments. It lowered transportation cost for all sorts of products (including people) and it lowered communication cost between different regions of the world. Furthermore, it did this while vastly accelerating both processes at the same time. So goods could be transported further and faster and at the same time communication between different regions became more and more in real time.

Today we are all linked together in a vast network spanning the globe. All kinds of goods are routinely ordered from around the world for sale or consumption elsewhere. Families which used to be clustered in a village are now scattered all across. No one is surprised if say a brother is living in one country while a sister may be married and settled in another and the parents live in a third. Again we call this development. Opportunities used to be local. Now they are global. The biggest beneficiaries are corporations. The process of development has resulted in a globalization in which corporations now straddle the world. Unlike most previous entities, these giants have operations in different parts of the world. For example design may be done in the USA, while manufacturing is handled by China, market research may be done from India while the supply chain may be coordinated from the UK. The world of today is a complex interlocking structure which can smoothly transfer goods and services in different stages to different parts of the world at ever lower costs. This is a sophisticated, complicated structure with a unique elegance and beauty. All of this being accomplished without the aid of any central agency.

However, there is a paradox embedded in the heart of this structure. As this structure has become more global and more closely linked (which is an ongoing process), it has also become more fragile. As we have become more dependent on this system of connections, we have also become more vulnerable. The interesting thing is that the more dependent we are on this system, the more vulnerable we are. A shock administered to one part is felt in other parts and other areas of the system. Take Japan. A massive earthquake is followed by a massive tsunami. Large areas are devastated. There is major property damage and unfortunately also major loss of life. A terrible tragedy for the Japanese people. But the fallout from this event is felt in other parts of the world. Suddenly there is a recognition that Japan needs to rebuild. For that it will need money and is very likely to liquidate assets held abroad in order to finance reconstruction. Japan is also a major holder of US treasury bonds. What will happen to the US economy and the value of the US dollar if it starts selling large quantities of these? Many American companies, specially electronics ones, source material from Japan. Now these are heavily affected. Are there alternate suppliers with enough spare capacity to take up this lost production? If they do, how quickly can they gear up production? Fragility. An event in one part of the world is shaking other parts. Another example: Libya. Inspired by the events of Tunisia and Egypt, the Libyans launch their own protest against Muammar Gaddafi's regime. Unlike the other countries, Gaddafi strikes back hard and the country descends into a civil war. Libya however is a large oil producer. All of a sudden this capacity goes offline as far as the rest of the world is concerned. What happens next? Oil prices spike up. Again an event in one part of the world starts shaking up other areas. Fragility.

On a smaller scale, the fragility of the modern world can be seen in our cities. Modern cities are miracles of organization mostly unplanned. Our cities contain huge number of people living cheek by jowl. Vast quantities of different kinds of food and water need to be shipped in daily and distributed efficiently. Equally vast quantities of waste material need to be disposed of again on a daily basis. Cities are major centers of production and provide services essential for the smooth functioning of a modern economy. As an example, America's economic growth would be severely impaired if cities like New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco were to become dysfunctional. Cities are a sophisticated and thus a fragile system. What would happen if say a major earthquake were to cut off road and rail links and render airports unusable so that food supplies into the city are severely curtailed? People living in modern, developed cities are dependent on the smooth and timely functioning of the overall system. If it gets disrupted in a major way, starvation is a distinct possibility. Hungry people are not quiet people and so a breakdown of law and order would be very much on the cards. Again, more sophisticated the system, more fragile it is.

If developed countries with their highly sophisticated systems are so fragile, then developing countries should be like a house of cards. Interestingly enough, this is not necessarily so. Developed country systems are tightly linked together and are dependent on all parts functioning smoothly. Developing country systems are not so tightly linked together. People living in these systems are more used to fending for themselves simply because the system in which they live is usually dysfunctional to a greater or lesser degree. This also means that in times of need, local communities will rally together simply because they are more attuned to doing so. These systems are thus more robust because they are more primitive. That in a nutshell is the paradox of development: the greater the development, the more tightly linked different parts of the system are, the more fragile the overall system becomes.

On Development

We are all part of a global society that is obsessed with development. On all media, in all forums and frequently in private conversations, this is an underlying theme. However, development is an abstract concept and people are usually not very good with abstractions. We prefer to deal with more concrete ideas. So the problem is how to visualize development. The route normally taken is to equate development with growth but this only pushes the problem down another level. Growth itself is an abstract concept and so how do we visualize growth?

Development and growth, being abstract concepts, have many dimensions. The solution to the problem of visualizing development and growth is to focus on one or a few of the dimensions. The primary dimension along which development and growth are visualized is material well-being and this is itself visualized by our ease of access to the material things we need to exist. Some of these material things are necessary for us to live. So one measure of development is do we have access to water, food and shelter. These are then refined further. In the case of water, do we draw water from a well? A community tap? Water piped directly into our homes? In the case of food, in what quantity, then quality and then variety? Other material things are not necessary for survival but we deem them to be necessary in order to function effectively in a modern economy. Cases in point: cell phones and electricity in our homes and businesses. Still others are adornments that we decorate our houses and bodies with.

In a sense, this emphasis on materialism is not very surprising. In order to merely survive, we need access to a minimum quantity of resources - material things. In order to function effectively in our economy, we need access to a variety of material resources. The exact composition of the things changes over time. These changes are considered development. So development has essentially boiled down to a numbers game. How many things of different variety do we own irrespective of whether we actually have a use for them or not. There is a heavy, almost exclusive emphasis on materialism. All the measures that we use to monitor development and growth are based on material aspects. Whether we are measuring GDP or productivity or something else, we are seeing how much and hoe quickly can we produce things. Of course what is produced also needs to be consumed and so development is also increasing consumption of these things. Humans are thus reduced to producing and consuming automatons fascinated with shiny baubles and trinkets. In many respects, materialism makes us behave like the proverbial native Americans who gave up Manhattan island for a few cheap, shiny baubles.

Is there any harm in this? This emphasis on materialism has produced wonders for us. A large number of people today live in a style and comfort that even kings of bygone eras could not have dreamed of. Even the poorest of us have access to a level of goods and services that at one time would have been considered luxurious. By these measures, materialism has been good. So there's no problem there right? Not quite. To a considerable extent, we are what we measure. In other words, we become the dimensions of our existence that we emphasize. Materialism is merely one aspect of development. There are many other dimensions. How are we developing as individuals? How are we developing as a community? What kind of a culture or legacy are we bequeathing to later generations? Will we be remembered for our strange fascination with baubles and trinkets or will we be remembered for our music, our words that we leave behind, the social structures that we evolve? What about our spiritual side? What about our emotional side? Many of us are mental and emotional wrecks. These are symptoms brought about by the stresses of modern life. How do these stresses arise? Through an emphasis on materialism. Has material development made us happier, more mature, more fulfilled? Is our global culture producing enduring cultural and literary works? Or are we producing works that will barely be remembered a generation hence. What measures are truly important to focus on when we say development?

Propaganda And Society

Propaganda has become so ubiquitous in the public discourse that it has effectively disappeared into the background. This has been a remarkable transformation. Earlier attempts at spreading ideas through propaganda were crude, obnoxious and obvious. These attempts generated a resistance amongst the people whose views were sought to be manipulated. But then several previously separate strands of business and research came together over the course of the 20th century. Firstly there was considerable development in the art of Public Relations. This research was pushed by corporations seeking to positively influence public opinion in their favor or in the favor of their products without it seeming as advertising. At the same time, there were major advances in the study of the human brain and mind. Rapid advances in psychology shed new light on how people absorb new ideas and get motivated. These strands were then brought together by governments during the Cold War. The result was major advances in how propaganda can be used to influence public opinion. These strand have been continuously refined since then until the result is as I have mentioned above: propaganda so ubiquitous that it has become part of the background noise.

How do we as individuals make sense of the events happening around us? The various events that we read or hear about in the media form part of an ongoing historical narrative. This is part of how we make sense of the world us. A large part of being mentally mature is our ability to do this. Most of us, no matter where we live, are convinced that the mental picture of the world that we thus form is reasonably accurate and true. But is it? How can we be sure that we are not being manipulated by the same media on whom we are dependent for our information and analysis of the world around us? This problem is most acute in developed countries whose inhabitants are convinced that all the media that they encounter is neutral and impartial.

The fact of the matter is that most media outlets in nearly all countries are not neutral. Most of them are beholden to or part of major corporations which always try to manipulate us for their perceived benefit. Today there are both individuals and corporations who control major media outlets and who are not shy of using these as instruments with which to control how we think and thus how we react and behave. Climate change is an excellent example of this. The vast majority of scientific opinion is strongly of the view that global temperatures are rising; they are rising as a result of human behavior; the effects of this rise are unknown but are highly likely to be extremely negative with a major rise in natural calamities and the very strong possibility of major crop failures. There is very strong evidence to back up these assertions. By rights, there should be no controversy about climate change. But there is. Why? Major propaganda efforts by corporations, think tanks and individuals to obfuscate the issue. The end result sought is to control the historical narrative and through that influence public opinion that there is no need to worry about climate change and business as usual can go on.

Propaganda is an incredibly useful tool in the hands of corporations and individuals to channel public view of events along particular lines. The basic aim is to manipulate the many for the benefit of the few in such a manner that the former do not become disillusioned down the road. Society's view of itself is influenced by its remembered history - its historical narrative. Influence that in the present by the effective use of propaganda and not only will the past be remembered through a particular lens but the course of the future itself can be influenced more easily.

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Fear of Change

Change is disruptive. This is key to understanding our reaction to it. People value stability. Change breaks that stability and forces on us a scramble to find a new stable point around which to base our lives. This process can be painful and protracted but at the same time exhilarating. Changes can come for any variety of reasons and from a variety of causes. Often, the cause is external. Economic conditions, political conditions, social conditions - these are all sources of external change. You think you've got a stable job. You've been working in your organization for over 10 years. You have had great reviews every year. Management has heaped praises and awards on you. Then one day, you are fired. No explanations given. Half an hour to pack your things and get out. This is unexpected, unanticipated change that causes a major disruption. Carefully laid plans for the future are suddenly knocked out of kilter. Consider another scenario. You come home after a hard day's work and your better half wants a divorce. You had missed all signs of dissatisfaction or disaffection. Again, unexpected, unanticipated change that causes a major disruption. Yet another scenario. You discover that you have won the lottery. Suddenly there are over a million dollars in your account. Again unexpected, unanticipated change that will cause a major disruption.

Why do we have nostalgia for the past? Why do we yearn for a past that now seems simpler and more innocent. The time period in question dies not matter. Whether it is the 1970s or the 1980s or the 1990s or some earlier period, the passage of time has lent an aura of innocence and simplicity that we did not appreciate when we were actually experiencing that era. A major reason for this effect is that change brings positive and negative effects in its wake. On the positive side, we have different and usually better, faster ways of communicating, working and socializing. It is now possible to maintain far flung relationships. Life in many respects is easier than previously. But these changes come at a cost of added complexity. There are now much more options to keep track of and figure out. The new and improved ways of communicating, working and socializing also mean that we need to learn new habits and unlearn old ones - an incredibly hard task to do. In addition, the direction of the change is often not clear. Alternate new paths lie open before us. One has to be chosen but there is no guide map. A leap in the dark needs to be undertaken and that is a truly terrifying prospect. And there is no let up. Not only change is occurring, but the rate of change is accelerating. Adjustments need to be made ever faster. By contrast, the past seems definitive, simpler, innocent.

What is true of individuals is also true of nations. Why is there a rising tide of anti-immigration sentiment throughout the world. All the evidence indicates that immigrants have a positive effect on host societies. Most immigrants are by nature more enterprising and hard working than their peers in their native countries. They have to be. It is not easy to leave everything you are familiar with and seek work in a new country with a strange language and strange customs. Most immigrants contribute more to their host societies that they take out. There is an inter-mingling of cultures, customs, styles and modes of expression which result in new modes of expression and new, different goods and services being made available. Countries which experience immigration grow faster than those which do not. Yet immigrants are treated with suspicion and hostility. They are viewed as stealing jobs from the natives even if the jobs are of the type that no native would want to do. Immigrant lifestyles and mores are viewed as threats to native lifestyles and mores. Why? What is happening here? Immigrants bring change in their wake. The people who are hostile seek to hold on to what is familiar. A fear of change provokes a visceral reaction.

As I have written before, change can be viewed through different prisms. However it is viewed, it is the one great constant in our lives. Change occurs on and around us all the time. Why then are we often afraid of change? Why do we not celebrate and embrace change all the time? It is precisely because of its disruptive effects.

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Change

What is change? A different way of doing things? A different way of thinking? How about a different way of living? The dictionary gives more than 30 different definitions of the word. We all tend to agree that the only constant in our lives is change. This is usually viewed as good especially in the popular media which celebrates and endorses change. For something that plays such an important role in our lives, there is a fair amount of confusion regarding change.

Change can be viewed as physical growth. Over the course of a lifetime, the human body undergoes myriad changes. An old man walking slowly down the street (perhaps with the help of a cane) was once a strapping young lad who could undertake great physical exertions without considering it a big deal. Similarly an old lady quietly sitting in a corner was once a vivacious beauty with the confidence to hold her own in any company. These are physical changes that all of us will undergo as we age. These are however definitely not the most important changes that occur during our lifetimes.

Alternatively, change can be viewed as difference in forms of living. Modern lifestyles are very different from those of a generation ago. The lifestyles of our children will in turn be very different from our own. Most of these lifestyle changes occur because of the exponential nature of technological change. Until industrialization, technology changed in a fairly predictable, linear fashion. The rate of change was such that lifestyles changed over the course of centuries. Industrialization was a major discontinuity in this regard. The rate of change of technology became exponential regardless of the kind of technology and regardless of political and economic conditions. The nature of an exponential graph is such that it starts slowly and rapidly builds up and this is exactly what we are seeing today. Computing is a prime example whereby computing devices have become smaller and more powerful at an exponential rate. There is also no indication that this trend is going to change to the extent that even mainstream media is now starting to talk about Singularity - the idea that these changes will become so massive that we will have no basis of comparison in the past. As I have mentioned above, these changes in turn engender changes in the way we live and behave. I am talking about radical changes here. The kind of changes that are simply unimaginable to most of us today. The video below is an attempt to look at what our lifestyles may be like in just a few short years from now. And this vision is almost certainly not bold enough to reflect what we will (probably) actually encounter.

Change can also be viewed as a different way of thinking. This is the most important change of all. One of the great effects of technological (specially communications) advances has been that we are now exposed to different lifestyles, philosophies and ways of thinking. This has done two things. It has made us aware that our particular way of thinking or particular philosophy is not the only one. There are other, valid alternatives. The other effect is that this exposure has enriched our own thinking. Why are major metropolitan areas called cosmopolitan? It is because their inhabitants are exposed to these alternate points of view. This mixing of different viewpoints results in the evolution of everyone's thinking. It results in change and that in turn results in growth in understanding and maturity. These are the marks of a growth in wisdom.

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Modern Imperialism

Does imperialism exist today? Most people think not. The dismantling of the European empires was the major story of the mid 20th century. Starting from 1947, country after country gained independence. Some were voluntarily relinquished, the prime example being India which got partitioned into two states. Others gained independence after major battles. Prime examples here were Algeria, Malaya, Indonesia and Kenya. What was startling about the process was the sheer speed with which these empires were dismantled. A major reason for this was that after World War II, Europe was essentially bankrupt both financially and resource wise. A second major reason was US pressure. Americans have traditionally been hostile to formal empires. At the end of the Second World War, they were by far the dominant power and hence in a position to "persuade" Europeans to relinquish their overseas territories.

So a happy ending right? Imperialism got successfully dismantled. The former colonies were now finally free to follow their own particular developments free from oversight of Imperial overlords who considered that they knew better than the natives. Not quite. Formal imperialism did get dismantled at an astonishing pace. However, the framework of imperialism was not dismantled. The new states found themselves enmeshed in a web of treaties and agreements that preserved the old global power structures. These had originally evolved to meet the needs of the imperial overlords. They continued to serve the same purpose from a distance. New financial structures also evolved which further enmeshed the new countries in an endless cycle of debt. At the same time, offshore banking arose from small beginnings to the massive structure that it is today. Debt and offshore banking served to suck much needed capital out of the new states into the economies of the developed world. The old ways in which the colonies had served as providers of raw materials while being buyers of finished manufactures continued largely unabated.

All of the above served to dampen the development of the new states. Some countries did develop, most notably the Far Eastern ones. However, they could do so within the framework established by the West. Their development was not smooth. It was marked by repression and a savage suppression of local aspirations. Most of them suffered for long periods of time under dictatorships which were only too ready to the bidding of the former masters.

Even now, the basic relationship between the developed and the developing (the new politically correct terms for the former conquerors and conquered) is an unequal one. Conditions have been imposed on the latter that the former did not have to face. These conditions are designed to protect the interests of Western bankers and investors. The interests of the local populations are of secondary concern at best. The aim at all times is to maintain the unimpeded flow of raw materials to the industries of the West. The primary consideration at all times has been the perpetual chase of ever increasing profitability. This chase has now started to shift industry away from the developed countries to the developing ones. The irony is that the structures that were designed to perpetuate the advantages and interests of the developed countries are slowly starting to work in favor of the developing ones.

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On Imperialism - Latin America

The American hemisphere has for a long time had an 800 pound gorilla in it. The influence of the US has been massive and unfortunately often negative for the rest of the states in the Americas. Latin America in general has suffered from the beginning of European contact till very recently. Imperialism has not only shaped the region, it has caused much suffering in the process.

The brunt of Imperialism's excesses fell on the native American population from the very beginning. They were killed off in massive numbers through war and disease until by the start of the 20th century, their population was reduced to a remnant in most areas. In other areas, they were subject to massive discrimination. Foreign rule was mostly cast off throughout the Americas by the beginning of the 19th century. But then the Latin American countries swiftly fell under the aegis of a rising hegemon: the US. The primary concern of the USA was twofold - both classic Imperialist aims. First, effectively exclude other powers from the region. In this aim, it was somewhat successful in the 1800s. Its power was sufficient to prevent European powers from imposing direct rule over South America except for a few minor outposts. However, it was not strong enough to prevent the commercial interests of the other powers, particularly Britain, from penetrating the region. It was more successful in the 1900s as its power grew relative to other nations. Its second aim was to ensure that South America remained as a provider of raw material (including agricultural products) while providing a market for US manufactures. The most effective way of pursuing these aims was to suppress democratic forces and ensure the supremacy of reactionary dictatorships that would do as they were bid. The effective result was the same as in other parts of the world that suffered from colonialism. Domestic industrialization was largely prevented while their domestic markets remained wide open to international competition.

The system developed by the USA vis a vis Latin America had a beautiful aspect. Because the USA ruled through proxies and did not (mostly) impose direct rule, it could claim a moral high ground while still benefiting from the Imperial system. The real sufferers were the mass of the people living in these nations whose living standards declined pretty much constantly throughout the 19th and the 20th centuries while a tiny elite prospered from the status-quo. Here the answer to the question of whether Imperialism benefited the mass of the ruled is even clearer than in other regions. It has to be an unequivocal no.

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On Imperialism - China and the Far East

Pepper was the original driving force behind European's push towards the East. The substance was in great and increasing demand in Europe for its culinary and preservative properties. The trade was controlled by Muslim and Venetian middlemen with the consequence that its price was very high. So for the earliest Europeans to venture East, there were both commercial and religious considerations. They considered themselves to be doing God's work by bringing Christianity to the benighted souls of the East and getting rich in the process. Twin considerations that have been the source of much ill in the world.

There was however one drawback right at the beginning. The East simply was not interested in what the West had to offer except for silver. This was a severe problem which the Spaniards and the Portuguese resolved by essentially becoming robbers and extorting "protection" money. This largely set the tone for later arrivals. When the Dutch came to Far East, they were able to gain control of the Spice Islands and then used that as a leverage with which to eventually control all of what would later become Indonesia. Britain, not to be left out, gained control over Malaya, Singapore and Hong Kong.

Dutch rule in Indonesia was by no means enlightened. Indonesia was exploited to industrialize Holland. The colony became extremely profitable making the colonial rulers one of the most important colonial powers. The economic and social policies followed by the Dutch were designed to extract as much profit from its colony as possible without developing it. Like India, Indonesia provided raw materials for the ruling country while providing a market for the latter's manufactures. Only much later did the Dutch try to foster some sort of social development but this was a case of too little too late. It is no wonder that after World War II, Holland, having lost the colony to Japan, made a determined attempt to re-establish colonial control. Was colonial rule beneficial to Indonesia? Wikipedia's entry on the Dutch East Indies shows quite conclusively that the answer to that question is no.

The antics of the Dutch in the Far East were however a side show. The main game was over China and later Japan. In the beginning, the Chinese state proved to be powerful enough to be able to protect its interests. However, the advent of industrialization decisively tipped the balance of power in favor of the Western powers. This was demonstrated conclusively over the Opium Wars which are perhaps the only wars in history to be fought over an illicit drug. It is as though the Colombian drug cartels successfully fight the US into agreeing to allow import of unlimited quantities of heroin. The drug in question at that time was opium which was the solution to a balance of payment problem that the British had with China: the Chinese were simply not interested in any Western manufacture but the British had great demand for Chinese ones. The only payment acceptable to China was silver which meant a drain of the commodity from Britain until opium came along. The result of the Opium Wars were the Unequal Treaties which opened up the country on unfavorable commercial lines and granted special rights to Europeans. Other Asian states such as Japan and Korea also suffered from these treaties. Out of them, only Japan was able to successfully fend off the Western powers and even that was only by the wholesale adoption of Western forms and mores. Although China was never fully occupied by the Western powers, it was heavily influenced by the Unequal Treaties imposed on it and by Western ideas that represented a sharp break from traditional Chinese ones.

In all cases in the Far East, like in India and Africa, imposition of Western rule effectively ended local political, social and cultural development. Entire generations became divorced from their own history. Only much later was there an attempt made to recover what had been lost. This effort however was strongly colored by (sometimes rabidly) nationalist re-interpretations of the past. There were positive developments. A system of law and order and policing was generally imposed. Infrastructure projects wove the countries closer together. Colonialism re-arranged traditional trading and cultural links but it did put in new ones. All of these however were subservient to the needs of the colonial powers and not to the needs of the locals. Much of the time these developments were on a very small scale and did not affect the larger population which in any case counted for nothing in the eyes of the Imperial powers.

Was the effect of colonialism favorable to the Far East? On balance no. Like Africa and India, traditional structures of power and customs were destroyed. This was often done deliberately so as to make exploitation of these areas easier. Sometime this was done accidentally or out of an attempt to "civilize" the natives. Throughout this period, there was a basic assumption that the social structures, philosophies and ideas of these areas were inherently inferior to those of the West. This of course makes it all the more ironic that their descendants are seeking solace in these very same philosophies and ideas.

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